Water for food, livelihoods and nature: simulations for policy dialogue in South Africa
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IWMI's research activities on the linkages between water and food security have led to the development of a policy dialogue model-Podium-which is a cereal-based simulation model that addresses questions related to water and food security in a global, national and river basin context. This paper presents results of the application of the model to South Africa. This entails, firstly, an assessment of the current macroeconomic trends, food requirements and production potential. These assessments are then used to generate various scenarios on meeting national food production targets, taking into account the country's water resources endowment and the management thereof to meet those requirements. The implications of various policy options for achieving national level food security are discussed. One important point that emerges is the need for adequate and reliable data pertaining to the main drivers of the model: demography, nutritional requirements, cereal imports and exports, performance of the agriculture sector, and climate and hydrological regimes, in order to derive simulations and scenarios that are useful and meaningful for policy formulation. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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