China's past, present, and future food economy: can China continue to meet the challenges? uri icon

abstract

  • This paper synthesizes the main findings and highlights the insights of six articles that examine how China has managed its agricultural resources in the past, how agriculture is performing at present, and what challenges lie ahead as the country seeks to meet the food needs of its growing population, It provides common threads of empirical evidence on China's agricultural growth, describing its interrelationships with institutions, development policies and environmental degradation, and examines the sensitivity of China's trade balances and world prices to environmental and growth outcomes, using six income growth and resource degradation scenarios, This paper notes that, hampered by chronic fiscal problems and restrictions that will be imposed when it joins the World Trade Organization, China can meet its food supply goals by increasing reliance on international markets, establishing stable trading relationships with the rest of the world, and by exploiting its agricultural comparative advantage, However, the most likely scenario is for China to continue producing most of its own food while gradually increasing food imports without exerting severe upward pressure on the world markets, The paper concludes that China needs to prioritize investments in agricultural research for new technologies raising agricultural productivity, and mitigating rural environmental problems. (C) 1997 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

publication date

  • 1997
  • 1997