Trends of climatic potential and on-farm yields of rice and wheat in the Indo-Gangetic Plains uri icon

abstract

  • Rice and wheat are the two most important cereals in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) and are responsible for the food security of the region. To understand the productivity trends in the transects of the IGP: (1) the climatic potential yields of rice and wheat were simulated using a crop simulation modeling approach and (2) the long-term trends of potential and on-farm yields were compared. The potential yields of rice and wheat in the IGP ranged from 7.7 to 10.7 and 5.2 to 7.9 Mg ha(-1), respectively. The upper transects of the IGP are more productive and yield decreases by 27% for rice and by 32% for wheat from transect 2 to transect 5. The rate of change in the potential yield trend of rice from 1985 to 2000 ranged from -0.12 to 0.05 Mg ha(-1) per year. Negative yield trends were observed at six of the nine sites, four of which were statistically significant (P < 0.05). The decrease in radiation and increase in minimum temperature were the reasons for the yield decline. The potential yield trend of wheat, however, appeared to be stable. On-farm yields of rice also showed a negative trend but for wheat the trend was mostly positive. The adverse changes in the weather parameters and declining trends of potential and on-farm yields of rice should be taken as an indication of a future problem. Regular on-farm monitoring of crops and climatic factors is urgently needed for predicting problems and allowing measures to be taken to improve productivity. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

publication date

  • 2003
  • 2003
  • 2003