Crop?Livestock Intensification in the Face of Climate Change: Exploring Opportunities to Reduce Risk and Increase Resilience in Southern Africa by Using an Integrated Multi-modeling Approach uri icon

abstract

  • The climate of Southern Africa is highly variable at most time-scales and followsa pronounced gradient with arid conditions in the west and humid conditions inthe east. There is also a marked latitudinal rainfall distribution pattern, with thesouthern part having a low rainfall index and high variability and the northern parthaving higher annual rainfall and lower interannual variability (Kandji et al., 2006).Over the last 100 years, temperatures have increased by about 0.5?C in the regionand downward trends in rainfall have also occurred (Kandji et al., 2006; Morton, 2007). There has also been an increase in drought eventswith over 15 drought eventsreported in the region between 1988 and 1992. The frequency and intensity of ElNin?o episodes have increased. Prior to the 1980s, strong El Nin?o events occurredevery 10?20 years; between 1980 and 2000, the region experienced five episodeswith the 1982?1983 and 1997?1998 episodes being the most intense of the century(Reason and Jagadheesha, 2005; Rouault and Richard, 2005). These episodes havecontributed to stagnant or decreasing agricultural production and worsening foodinsecurity in the region (Kandji et al., 2006). Unfavorable climatic conditions andprojected climate change are among the major obstacles to achieving food securityin the region and also have dire consequences for macro-economic performance

publication date

  • 2015