Ex-ante Impact Assessment of Drought Tolerant Sorghum Cultivars under Future Climates: Integrated Modeling approach uri icon

abstract

  • An integrated modeling framework ? IMPACT ? which integrates partial equilibrium economic model,hydrology model, crop simulation model and climate model was used to examine the ex-ante economicimpact of developing and disseminating a drought tolerant sorghum cultivar in target countries of Africaand Asia. The impact of drought tolerant sorghum technology on production, consumption, trade flowand prices of sorghum in target and non-target countries were analyzed. And also we estimated thereturns to research investment for developing the promising new drought tolerant cultivars anddissemination in the target countries. The analysis indicates that development and release of droughttolerant sorghum in the target countries of Asia and Africa would provide a net economic benefit ofabout 1476.8 million US$ for the entire world under no climate change condition. Under climate changescenarios the net benefits derived from adoption of new drought tolerant sorghum cultivar is higherthan the no climate change condition. This is due to higher production realized by sorghum underclimate change scenarios. The results imply that substantial economic benefits can be achieved from thedevelopment of a drought tolerant sorghum cultivar. And also this technology will perform better thanthe existing cultivars in future climate change condition

publication date

  • 2013