The Power of Predictions and Probabilities uri icon

abstract

  • Monsoon rainfall in India varies every year, and distribution is uncertain. This poses a production riskfor farmers in the semi-arid India.Farmers tend to ignore rainfall forecasts issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) whilemaking crop decisions since they are made for the whole country, and could be unreliable regionally.Recent advances in forecasting techniques improve the usefulness of forecasting seasonal rainfall.Farmers in USA, Australia, Argentina and Brazil benefit from forecast-based cropping decision optionsto enhance agricultural productivity

publication date

  • 2006